Importance of beating the closing odds

Finding the opening odds first

Make sure to follow our betting tips which are constantly updated and will always have the best odds helping you to buck the trend and beat the bookies.

The opening odds are the first odds that are released by an online bookmaker

Opening odds are usually released around a week before the match is due to start and are based on information all the information that is currently available to the bookies.

Remember that as time goes on other factors can contribute to bookmakers adjusting the odds to come in line with as new developments take place. 

A sudden change of manager or a key player being ruled out with illness/injury are just two of many incidences that may see odds altered from how they stood initially.

Bookmakers are able to call upon employees hired specifically to keep ahead of all the information they have access to the odds are as accurate as can be. 

Odds will fluctuate from when they are initially released. This is due to betting companies constantly monitoring the market and reacting on trends to make sure they’re not leaving themselves exposed to losing money on a potential outcome.

The bookies will always react quickly to buck the trend

For example, a last-minute cash flow toward a certain pick will result in the bookies having to react swiftly to cover themselves. Here, they’d drop the odds on the side heavily backed and lift the odds on the other side in order to smooth out the money.

Closing odds are an accurate reflection of the outcome of an event due to being decided by what the market is saying. 

As in any walk of life, you’ll often find punters following the “herd mentality” where a punter will observe odds for a specific team dropping and won’t hesitate in following suit and betting on it also. Why? Because the knowledge shared between the masses, is likely to be far more accurate than one single expert’s prediction. 

The more people bet on one market, the more the bookies will look to drop their odds   

The caveat of this though rests with the amount of profit made, which you can expect to be low.

The larger the market, the greater likelihood of the closing odds being correct which is fine in showing an outcome for what it’s worth but doesn’t provide much in the way of value.

Think of the value, not just the likelihood of placing a winning bet

At the same time, it’s important to beat the final odds in popular competitions and large market such as the English Premier League for example.

The more obscure sports simply do not attract the masses and so will have markets with low turnovers, low limitations and less chance of making a profit from the start.

The expected value of is the average expected return for each bet.

Becoming familiar with how to calculate the Expected Value (EV) of a bet is an important step for increasing your level of expertise in betting.

It’s unlikely you’ve asked yourself whether a bet has a positive or negative value but the answer could help determine whether or not you’ll become successful at betting in the long run. 

Calculating the Expected Value for a match

You'll first need to find out the true odds of an outcome by calculating its probability.

It sounds complicated but you can quickly and easily do it yourself by dividing the odds by 1.

So if you have odds of 1/1 (2.20) then you would do the sum:  1 ÷ 2.20 = 0.45. That would mean that the probability is 45%.

Formula for calculating the expected value in a match

(Probability of winning) x (Winning amount per bet) minus

(Probability of losing) x (Lost amount per bet)

A negative EV doesn’t mean you’re going to lose money

Unlike a coin toss, sports betting odds are subjective which means money can be made if you’re able to outsmart the bookmaker.

The key to success here is not dependent on individual results which can be determined by luck. It’s important instead to search for bets that have a positive expected value in order to be a winner in the long run. While this offers no guarantee of success when betting on individual matches, your chances will increase significantly.