I love opposing West Brom
I feel like I am writing a very similar argument about opposing West Bromwich Albion every week. But, here I go. Nothing has changed, they remain completely out of their depth in the topflight of English football. They were very fortunate to grab their only win of the season against Sheffield United a few weeks back and despite that triumph they have not improved a jot. A 5-1 defeat at home to Crystal Palace followed and then another humbling performance and loss this time at the hands of Newcastle United, makes it back to back failures in matches that they would have identified as opportunities to pick up points, should they be a side of enough quality to even compete against relegation this term.
Process
By the way, they host Aston Villa this Sunday and there is value in backing Dean Smith’s men, who actually beat West Brom on penalties in the Championship playoff semi finals in 2018/19. Somewhat inflated by their surprise 7-2 victory over Liverpool, Villa are trending as a side that should be competing for a top six place, sitting 10th in the table. They snatched a last gasp winner from the penalty spot in the West Midlands derby last time out and will be hoping to take that momentum into a busy week of Premier League action.
West Brom’s underlying numbers, brace yourself, are horrific. They sit 18th for goals scored, 9, and 20th for goals against, 25, expected goals for, 8.9, and expected goals against, 24.4. Aston Villa have scored over double the goals, created over double the quality of chances, almost conceded half as many goals as the Baggies, and they have played two games less! One of the reasons Villa are not shorter to get the win is because they have two days less recovery time for this match, West Brom travel to Manchester City on Tuesday night whereas Smith’s men host Burnley on Thursday.
The visitors rank seventh for goals for and expected goals for but most impressively fourth and third for goals against and expected goals against. Tyrone Mings and Ezri Konsa have got to be one of the most improved central defensive partnerships in Europe since the first lockdown, you can tell John Terry is working wonders on the training ground. Not that you need to be defensively sound to handle the Baggies.
Goals?
Potentially an angle if you think Villa could win comfortably but I would recommend using the Asian Handicap rather than a goals angle.
- West Brom have scored in four of 10.
- West Brom have conceded in eight of 10.
- West Brom have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- West Brom have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
- Villa have scored in eight of 10.
- Villa have conceded in six of 10.
- Villa have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- Villa have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of 10.
Villa’s second string could beat West Brom if they are depleted after they host Burnley on Thursday. Even at odds on there is value.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
West Brom had two days longer to prepare, and only managed one shot to Villa's 19. 3-0 Villa, I love opposing the Baggies.