Baggies' struggle to continue at St. James'
On paper the easiest game of the season for Newcastle United presents itself this Saturday as the Magpies host West Bromwich Albion. Both teams played Crystal Palace in their last encounter, Newcastle beat the Eagles 2-0 where the Baggies crumbled to a 5-1 thrashing. The hosts are without key players in Martin Dubravka and Allan Saint-Maximin but in Miguel Almiron, Callum Wilson and the ever improving Joelinton, they have enough to provide value in backing at odds against. The Baggies picked up slightly in one goal defeats to Tottenham Hotpsur and Manchester United before beating Sheffield United, but their process has continued to be comfortably the worst in the division throughout that period. That Newcastle price is awesome value.
Process
Steve Bruce’s Newcastle are not the most easy on the eye, they like to sit back against the vast majority of teams and hit them on the counter. Even against mid table sides they love to sit back, West Brom take a similar approach. No side will want the ball, but if it is forced on the Magpies in Jonjo Shelvey, Sean Longstaff and Miguel Almiron they have the better ball carriers in the two sides. WBA are just inferior to the rest of the Premier League on almost every level.
Newcastle are a mid table side defensively and a lower mid table side in an attacking sense, they are trending pretty regularly in terms of expected goals, scoring 12 from 11.4 and conceding 15 from 15.1. They are the Newcastle we have been accustomed to seeing under Bruce, not great but not poor enough to go down.
The Baggies are also trending as expected, with the third worst attack in the league and the leakiest defence. They have scored just eight from 8.1 expected goals, the lowest in the division, and conceded 23 from 23.1, a league low for both metrics. Chelsea loanee Conor Gallagher has bagged in each of the last two games, but do not bank on him getting the space he was so generously afforded to score both of those strikes against the Magpies.
Goals?
Definitely not in my book, a Newcastle win accompanied by a clean sheet would be the only alternative for me, but the value provided in backing the hosts means an added selection is not necessary. This will not be a thriller for the neutral.
- Newcastle have scored in seven of nine.
- Newcastle have conceded in six of nine.
- Newcastle have seen both teams score in six of nine.
- West Brom have scored in four of nine.
- West Brom have conceded in seven of nine.
- West Brom have seen both teams score in three of nine.
Not pretty.
Newcastle have the attacking talent to score the one or two at a push goals they will need to beat West Brom, the Baggies will be aiming for a point.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Dwight Gayle came back to haunt the Baggies, nodding in a late winner. 2-1.