Hammers to kick on at St Mary's
Southampton welcome David Moyes’ West Ham United to St Mary’s this Saturday, looking to earn their first league win of the season and continue their unbeaten home record. A James Ward-Prowse additional time penalty rescued a point from St James’ Park last time out, they are clearly a spirited group but whether or not Saints have the quality on the pitch to pick up 40 points this season remains to be seen. The crushing losses of Danny Ings and Jannik Vestergaard leave question marks over the defensive contingent, and heap pressure on the shoulders of Adam Armstrong and Che Adams to replace the goals the former added.
Background
The formidable attacking trio of Pablo Fornals, Said Benrahma and the imperious Michail Antonio have hit the ground running emphatically this season. Antonio has four in three, Benrahma two in three the same as the Spaniard. There have been 15 goals in the Hammers’ opening three matches, an average of five goals a game. Unsustainable? Yes. However, it demonstrates that this encounter could definitely be one for the neutral, both teams have scored in the Saints’ opening three as well.
The Asian goal line with over 2.75 just below evens is appealing however, with West Ham having scored 10 goals from 7.2 expected is not a repeatable figure over a three game basis. Therefore using the Asian Handicap I have found a preferred angle that keeps the second placed Londoners onside.
Process
Saints are in 13th position in the table, perfectly in line with their expected goals figures. West Ham rank fifth for the metric and considering the gap between the two sides last term, rightfully come in as favourites on the South Coast. The visitors are currently boasting a top four level attacking contingent with a mid table backline, it will be interesting how they trend in both boxes as the season progresses. With their pace and desire in attack, Saints cannot afford to leave any space in behind.
With trips to Manchester City and Chelsea on the horizon, Saints need to pick up their first win from somewhere and home games against West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers are more realistic opportunities to earn that first victory.
West Ham are in a much better place than Saints at the moment, we are still learning about Ralph Hasenhuttl’s men in the post Danny Ings era at St Mary’s. Therefore taking them at 0 on the handicap at a short price still feels a sensible selection.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
0-0, money back.