Timid affair on the cards at St Mary's
Southampton will be hoping to get over their 6-0 loss to Chelsea when they host Arsenal at the weekend.
Mikel Arteta’s Gunners will arrive on the South Coast off the back of two straight defeats to Crystal Palace and Brighton and Hove Albion, completely re-shaping their bid to finish in the top four.
Arsenal’s bid to qualify for the Champions League has been built on a solid defensive process this season, and the loss of Kieran Tierney to injury, without a quality backup option, has hit them very hard.
There is the talent in the forward line to thrust the North Londoners back into contention, but the ruthlessness of Tottenham Hotspur could make it tough for them to reignite their push.
Process
The Saints have had a fantastic season considering the strength of their squad, and Ralph Hasenhuttl will be desperate to shore them up defensively, after the harrowing loss against Chelsea last time out.
Southampton have unsustainably underperformed to score just 37 from 46.2 expected goals (xG) for this season, creating chances at an average of 1.49 xGF per game.
The Gunners have only created 4.3 more xGF over the course of the season than the Saints, and that will certainly point to where Arteta’s men will be looking to strengthen in the summer.
Hasenhuttl can adapt his tactics very effectively, and has done earlier on in the season, expect them to set up to be much harder to beat, conceding possession and allowing the Gunners to try and break them down, while keeping one eye on their vulnerability on the counter attack.
Goals?
Unders appeals to me because it could be two sides meeting at a time where they are both more worried about conceding, than they are comfortable breaking out of their shape and taking the game to the opposition.
Saints should avoid a second consecutive hammering, but Arsenal are rightful favourites.
Saints have scored in eight of ten.
Saints have conceded in eight of ten.
Saints have seen both teams score in six of ten.
Saints have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Arsenal have scored in seven of ten.
Arsenal have conceded in six of ten.
Arsenal have seen both teams score in four of ten.
Arsenal have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
The youthful Gunners will be hesitant, knowing that a defeat could completely derail their top four hopes and the Saints will be content to accommodate that approach.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
1-0 Saints, Arsenal's top four slip continues.