Stoke to spoil Tony Pulis reunion
Tony Pulis faces his old club in Stoke City at Hillsborough this Saturday, looking to haul his new employers out of the Championship relegation battle. It has been a very bleak start to the season for the Owls, with the visit of playoff chasing Stoke a tricky afternoon lies ahead, however despite the recent form there is still good value in backing Michael O’Neill’s men. After a couple of seasons of disappointment and managerial turmoil since the Potters dropped down from the Premier League, this is the most optimistic and hopeful point the fan base have been in, O’Neill has made an excellent impact lifting them out of the battle from the drop last season and now kicking on towards the top end of the table.
Underlying process
Sheffield Wednesday have been simply dire in the last few weeks. They have not scored from open play in six matches and ranked rock bottom in the league in terms of expected goals. They rank 23rd in the table and sit in the exact same spot for goals scored and expected goals for, struggling to convert chances having created opportunities of 5.8 expected goals more than their goals total. This underperformance would suggest that they should not be down the bottom however that has come with them overperforming defensively, despite picking up very few points, they have only conceded 11 times from chances equating to 15.7 expected goals so far this term. They have the seventh best defensive record in the division, but do not read into that because in terms of expected goals against they are 14th.
The Potters have been on fire in front of goal, running a little hot, scoring 21 times from just 14 expected goals, that overperformance will not continue but I can still see them bossing the game on Saturday. They have been unlucky and have let in 18 goals, the fourth most leaky defence in the league, from chances adding up to 13.6 expected goals against which is decent, the seventh best for that statistic in the Championship. If they can keep it tight, limit Wednesday chance creation wise, which has been proven is not too difficult a task, then O’Neill’s men look far superior in this encounter.
Goals?
Not for me, even though there have been over 4.5 in three of Stoke’s last four this one looks to be a more dour affair. There have been under 2.5 in five of Wednesday’s last six and the Pulis philosophy is based a lot around defensive stability, building from the back is what has made him such a successful relegation fire fighter over the years, he still has not had a relegation on his CV. A both teams to score no punt would have come in in all but one of the Owls last eight matches, so that is definitely a good angle for this fixture. Stoke have scored in 13 of 15 so will fancy their chances.
The hosts will look to blunt Tyrsese Campbell and co, but they have the tools to get over the line.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Pulis ball worked, Sheff Wed will take the point from a goalless draw where they did not register a shot on target.