Luton value in West London
Queens Park Rangers welcome Luton Town for Friday evening’s return to Championship action at the Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium. Rangers are sitting just two points in front of the Hatters in sixth place from Luton in 11th, such is the clustering of teams battling it out just below the top six. QPR have been quite reliant on their home form so far this season and have only lost once in the league on their own patch, Mark Warburton will be hoping to channel in combating this very exciting Luton Town side. QPR are strong favourites, but I disagree.
Background
The Hatters had an outstanding summer transfer window and in Harry Cornick and Elijah Adebayo they have one of the most in form attacking duos in the division. Adebayo has been a great addition to the Championship, signing from Walsall last January and provides a crucial focal point to their attack.
QPR too have their own attacking threats, the hosts will be hoping that Ilias Chair and Lyndon Dykes return from international duty unscathed.
Process
Rangers have unsustainably overperformed in the attacking third so far this season, scoring 28 from 21.1 expected goals (xG), which ranks them 13th in the division with an average of 1.24 xGF per game. They are similarly a mid table outfit in defensive process despite the impressive performances of Seny Dieng (who will miss out on Friday), Rob Dickie and Yoann Barbet this term, conceding 24 from 21.4 xGA at 1.26 per game. QPR therefore, have a negative xG ratio which, if not addressed, will prevent them from building a credible push to finish in the top six by the end of the season.
Luton are one of the second tier’s data darlings so far this term, in the sense that their underlying numbers are superior to their league position as the best of the rest outside of the parachute payments trio of Bournemouth, Fulham and West Bromwich Albion. They rank fourth in averaging 1.69 xGF per game and sixth for their rearguard action allowing just 1.15 xGA per match.
Goals?
A potential angle with both teams containing match changing players in attacking areas, but I will be leaning on the Asian Handicap in this one.
- Rangers have scored in nine of ten.
- Rangers have conceded in six of ten.
- Rangers have seen both teams score in six of ten.
- Rangers have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
- Luton have scored in seven of ten.
- Luton have seen conceded in six of ten.
- Luton have seen both teams score in four of ten.
- Luton have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
The scoreline did not reflect the game, 2-0 QPR>