Mowbray could have Warburton for breakfast
Mark Warburton’s Queens Park Rangers will be looking to keep the relegation zone at arms length when they host playoff pushing Blackburn Rovers this Saturday. Tony Mowbray’s Rovers are knocking on the door of the top six for the second consecutive season and this time around they have a mercurial striker at Championship level in Adam Armstrong. Both of these two’s last couple of matches ended with a 1-0 scoreline, such is the low scoring nature of the English second tier this season, but with so much at stake I would expect each side to fly out of the blocks in this one.. The visitors are favourites but provide excellent value at odds against.
Process
Rangers are 19th in the table, slightly lower than their expected goals rank having hugely underperformed to convert just 23 chances from 32 expected goals. Still a lower bottom half process, but there is a lot of goalscoring weight on the shoulders of the returning Charlie Austin, with Lyndon Dykes and Macauley Bonne struggling to hit the ground running in their first season at the club. Their defence has tightened up recently and improved compared to last term but they still sit 16th expected goals against, conceding chances equating to 33.1 expected goals to which they conceded just 31, a slight overperformance. Timothy Seny Dieng has received a lot of plaudits in recent weeks for his performances between the sticks, he could be busy in this game.
Rovers’ underlying process is excellent, that of a top six side consistently this season, they have scored 41 goals, the second most in the division, from 39 expected, an automatic promotion attacking process, but their defence is trending in mid table, conceding 28 from 29.9 expected. If they can put in an above average attacking display they are fully capable of blowing Rangers away.
Goals?
Not for me, despite Rovers’ defensive shortcomings they have kept back to back clean sheets and with QPR’s toothless displays this season, it is unders or nothing.
- QPR have scored in five of 10.
- QPR have conceded in six of 10.
- QPR have seen both teams score in three of 10.
- QPR have seen over 2.5 goals in none of 11.
- Rovers have scored in eight of 10.
- Rovers have conceded in seven of 10.
- Rovers have seen both teams score in five of 10.
- Rovers have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
For me there is value in the visitors, it is a big price for a much better side.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
A disappointing Saturday continued. 1-0 QPR.