No Wilson no party
One of the least glamorous Premier League outings is this Saturday’s late kickoff between Steve Bruce’s Callum Wilson-less Newcastle United and Nuno Espirito Santo’s defence first Wolverhampton Wanderers. The visitors come in as strong favourites just above evens which may look a little surprising by the state of the table however given Newcastle’s weak attacking contingent and their defensive prowess they are certainly rightful favourites. No value in it for me though, the Magpies have enough to compete and a draw will be the result to fight for to keep their points tally ticking over as they continue to look over their shoulders.
The hosts rank 17th in the expected goals standings, exactly in line with the table. They have a sustainable lower bottom half process going forward, scoring 26 from 26.8 expected goals, England international Wilson accounts for 15 of those goals, in terms of his goals and assists, that is 58%, they must find a way to hit the net in his absence with a return unlikely before April. Fulham have cut the gap to three points, significantly less than the double figures it was at one time in recent weeks, Bruce is firmly back under pressure. Only West Bromwich Albion have let in more goals than the Magpies who play on the counter, and like to try and absorb pressure, it has not been working too well, they have let in 43 goals from 40.9 expected, trending as a relegation side at the back.
Wolves have scored 26 from 29.4 expected goals, a modest total but one that has been built without talisman forward Raul Jimenez for most of the season. They have a lower mid table backline, conceding 32 from 35.4 expected goals, Rui Patricio’s form has been up and down this term but the return of Willy Boly in the last month has made them look much more assured.
Unders big time, Wolves have some attacking talent in Daniel Podence and Pedro Neto but I do not see them scoring more than two, whereas Newcastle’s tactic is to give it to Allan Saint-Maximin and pray. To an extent.
- Newcastle have scored in five of 10.
- Newcastle have conceded in 11 of 11.
- Newcastle have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
- Wolves have scored in six of 10.
- Wolves have conceded in six of 10.
- Wolves have seen both teams score in four of 10, but just two of eight.
- Wolves have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10, but also just two of eight.
Wolves are the better team but they are too short to excite me, use the Asian goal line to find value. I have chosen a selection that would see a half win should there be just two goals in the match.