Brighton ready to cause an upset
Graham Potter’s process built Brighton and Hove Albion travel to Old Trafford on Sunday looking to end all relegation whispers that have surrounded the club for most of the campaign. The Red Devils should comfortably finish in the top four unlike last season, giving them the opportunity to focus on their shot at silverware in the Europa League. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is still trophyless at the helm, and with their host of international players facing a little bit of fatigue to be ready for this weekend, the visit of the Seagulls is a banana skin. Brighton are a juicy price and sit above United in the expected goals standings, staying to that predictive metric let’s get them on side using the Asian Handicap.
United are a gradually improving side in the Premier League and that development has chugged along this season, whether it will make them able to compete for the biggest tournaments again is another question but they are slowly growing. They are the second top scorers in the division with 56 from 50.8 expected goals and conceded 32 from 36 so a firm overachievement. Regression hitting looks likely however their eight point buffer on West Ham United in fifth is plenty.
Brighton have been one of the stories of European football with their relationship with expected goals this season and without delving into their underperformance again I would like to shine light on their consistently excellent defensive process. They rank third for expected goals against allowing just 31.7 expected goals against, led exceptionally by Lewis Dunk and shored up by recent Spanish national team keeper Robert Sanchez, the Seagulls have a strong platform to grab footholds in games against the Premier League’s best. This will be interesting stylistically with Potter deploying his favoured back three system, if United are half cooked they will pay the price.
The unders is too short for me to get involved but looks the most likely angle in, for me jumping on the Asian Handicap is our best bet.
- United have scored in seven of 10.
- United have conceded in three of 10.
- United have seen both teams score in three of 10.
- United have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
- Brighton have scored in seven of 10.
- Brighton have conceded in six of 10.
- Brighton have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- Brighton have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
There is no reason why Brighton cannot upset the odds here, they will be fired up and have more to play for domestically than United in this final stretch.