Side with resilient Wolves in South London
Fresh off the back of taming Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea, Wolverhampton Wanderers are back in the capital to face Crystal Palace on Saturday. Nuno Espirito Santo has come under some pressure for the first time in his tenure, with Wolves sitting in 13th and having recently lost to local rivals West Bromwich Albion. The visitors qualified for the Europa League in their first season in the Premier League, reaching the quarter final stage last term and challenging to enter the competition for a second season right up until the last match of 2019/20. This one so far has not been as inspiring and Santo needs to turn their form around if he wants to keep his job at an ambitious club.
Process
These sides are trending in line with their expected goals data, Palace are 14th, one spot below Wolves, sitting 15th in the expected goals standing with the visitors ranking 12th by the metric. Santo’s men were victorious over the Eagles 1-0 in the FA Cup a few weeks back and have won the last three meetings between the sides.
Palace have been uncharacteristically poor defensively this term, ranking 19th and 18th for conceding 36 goals from 34.3 expected. With the addition of Eberechi Eze lifting their attacking threat a touch but they are still a mid bottom half outfit going forward, scoring 24 goals, 13th in the division from 21 expected goals, ranking them 16th. Wolves have underperformed a touch and look alarmingly toothless in the absence of talismanic forward Raul Jimenez, scoring 21 goals, the sixth least in the division, from 23.4 expected and conceding 29 from 28.5, a slight underperformance but a lower mid table process nonetheless.
Goals?
There is no value in the unders market so not a play for me, the bookies going very short on a low goal line in this match.
- Palace have scored in five of 10.
- Palace have conceded in eight of 10.
- Palace have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- Palace have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
- Wolves have scored in eight of 10.
- Wolves have conceded in seven of 10.
- Wolves have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Wolves have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
I feel I can rely on Wolves’ backline more than the Eagles’, therefore I am cautiously siding with the visitors, finding some value in an insurance play.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Crystal Palace keep just their fourth clean sheet of the season to heap the pressure on Santo. 1-0, Eze.