Regression to hit Spurs in London derby?
The Premier League gets back underway this Saturday afternoon, with Nuno Espirito Santo’s Tottenham Hotspur visiting South London to face Crystal Palace. Patrick Vieira’s tenure at the club has had an intriguing start, however with the Eagles’ best performance of the season so far coming in their 2-2 draw at West Ham United last time out before the international break. Conor Gallagher bagged a brace and the club’s first goals of the season at the London Stadium and will be hoping to have a similar impact on their fifth consecutive London derby, if you can just about geographically count Watford.
Background
Spurs are the only team in the division to win all three of their opening encounters, with the trio of victories against Manchester City, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Watford all coming through a 1-0 scoreline. Fresh from signing a new long term contract this summer, Son Heung-Min is looking as dangerous as ever and Harry Kane remaining at the club is a huge boost for everyone at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The return of Dele Alli is great to see in Spurs’ attacking contingent, after such an outstanding beginning to his career in North London, Alli will be looking to make up for lost time after a frustrating period under Jose Mourinho. The fine margins of Spurs’ early season victories are unsustainable.
Process
It is still a little early to be leaning on expected goals figures however they do offer some value in our pursuit of finding exactly that in the market. Spurs rank 14th for defensive process and have unsustainably overperformed to have kept three clean sheets despite allowing 4.9 expected goals against.
The budding centre back partnership of Marc Guehi and Joachim Andersen is starting to bear fruit, and leads into my angle for this fixture. Santo is a defensive coach, and with Palace having created just 2.7 expected goals from three games so far, this does not look like a match that will catch fire.
Osdonne Edouard looks like a very shrewd addition for the Eagles, joining from Celtic on transfer deadline day, it will be interesting to see if Vieira throws him straight into the starting eleven in front of the home crowd. In attempting to breach the so far unbreakable duo of Davinson Sanchez and Eric Dier at the heart of defence.
Unders all the way here, both have underperformed going forward in the small sample size however will be aiming to achieve some defensive solidarity following the international break.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
0-0 after 76 minutes looking good. 3-0 Palace, ouch.