Championship's form side value in South Wales
Cardiff City welcome in-form Nottingham Forest on Sunday in hoping to extend the gap between themselves and the relegation zone.
The Bluebirds have been chuntering along just about keeping their heads above the precipice but will be desperate to end a six game winless run to fuel belief that they will not be playing in League One next term.
In the 21 league games since Chris Hughton departed the City Ground, Forest have won 12, drawn six and lost just three in a truly incredible turnaround.
It is surprising to see them at such a big price in the Welsh capital. It is only the poor form of Barnsley, Peterborough United and Reading that are keeping Cardiff out of the drop zone and if Brennan Johnson is still at the club for this encounter, the Reds are definitely the more likely.
Process
Forest rank eighth on expected points compared to Cardiff in 15th, the Bluebirds have unsustainably underperformed to concede 47 from 36.3 expected goals (xG) against this season, allowing 1.4 xGA per game on average.
The Reds are narrowly better in both boxes but it is the individual talents in their side and the confidence that they are playing with that makes the price look very big.
Keinan Davis and Steve Cook have made their impacts known in recent weeks and the former opened his account for the club in a 3-0 win over Barnsley in midweek.
Ryan Giles has been linked with a return to South Wales from Wolverhampton Wanderers, but whether that will be done by the time this fixture takes place remains to be seen.
Cardiff are far less dangerous in the attacking third in his absence, particularly with Kieffer Moore struggling for fitness in recent weeks.
Goals?
Not an angle for me, Cardiff are due a solid defensive display and the fixture pile-up could see Forest a little less explosive in this matchup.
Cardiff have scored in seven of ten.
Cardiff have conceded in all of their last 26.
Cardiff have seen both teams score in seven of ten.
Cardiff have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Forest have scored in seven of ten.
Forest have conceded in five of ten.
Forest have seen both teams score in three of ten.
Forest have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
I am going to lean on the Asian Handicap for some extra insurance just incase Cardiff finally put in an assured defensive display.
Happy to get Forest onside with two outcomes avoiding a loss for us.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
A surprise 2-1 win for Cardiff, deserved as well.