More like Turf Snore this weekend
Burnley welcome Sam Allardyce’s West Bromwich Albion to Turf Moor this Saturday in possibly the most unfashionable Premier League matchup. The two worst attacking teams in the division face off with the visitors enjoying a free midweek to prepare. The Clarets host Fulham on Wednesday presenting not only two golden opportunities to pull right away from the relegation conversation, but an obstacle to tackle two games in four days with one of the most low cost squads in the league. If anyone can do it, Sean Dyche can and in that they have commanded respect from the bookies to come into this match as odds on favourites.
Process
We saw Burnley catch fire at Selhurst Park last weekend, comfortably embarrassing Roy Hodgson’s pragmatic side to a 3-0 scoreline. That result came off the back of a good performance at home to Brighton and Hove Albion where they deserved all three points and will fill the team with confidence going into the biggest week of their season. The return from injury of Johann Berg Gudmundsson has had an enormous impact, scoring the opening goal in each of their last two Premier League encounters.
There are positive signs in attacking process as Burnley look to decrease their underperformance which currently stands at scoring 17 from 21.6 expected goals. Forever reliable at the back, conceding just 29, the eighth best record in the division, from chances equating to 33.7 expected.
West Bromwich Albion have consistently had the worst process in the division by a mile. Sheffield United have looked twice the side Big Sam is in charge of in the last month and for me the only realistic aim the Baggies can have for the remainder of the season is to avoid finishing rock bottom. They are 12 points from safety despite playing one more match than the teams around them, it is very bleak. They have scored 19 from 20.2 expected, the worst process in the league, and conceded a whopping 55 from chances equating to 47.9 expected goals, by far the leakiest backline.
Goals?
Not a chance for me, Allardyce will have a full week on the training ground to prepare, that should play a part. The match in midweek will weaken Burnley slightly and if they can avoid defeat against Fulham, who were victorious at Everton last time out, they would be content with a draw once again, keeping the drop zone at bay. Therefore I see value in an unders play using the Asian Goal Line.
- Burnley have scored in five of 10.
- Burnley have conceded in seven of 10.
- Burnley have seen both teams score in two of 10.
- Burnley have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
- WBA have scored in six of 10.
- WBA have conceded in 10 of 10, without a clean sheet in 15.
- WBA have seen both teams score in eight of 10.
- WBA have seen over 2.5 in eight of 10.
Burnley look much stronger here, but the Fulham game in midweek will take some out of them. This game screams unders.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
A comfortable winner at last, 0-0. Despite going down to 10 men in the first period, West Brom won the expected goals battle.