Tired Blues to falter when Black Cats visit?
Birmingham City welcome Sunderland to St Andrew’s on Friday evening in front of the Sky Sports cameras.
The Blues have exceeded the expectations of the vast majority of supporters and neutral observers so far this term under John Eustace, with relegation concerns being pushed well to the back of minds in the last couple of months.
Having said that, the Blues are crawling towards January with ownership issues rumbling away in the background and operating with a very thin squad.
Eustace has been relying on contributions from young players and loanees, so far it is working a treat but it is going to be a tough week.
The Blues host Swansea City on Tuesday evening where Sunderland do not play, and for that reason Tony Mowbray’s Black Cats certainly have an advantage in terms of their preparation for this fixture.
Process
The season-long numbers are not sensational for the Blues, and they do seem to have benefitted from some excellent displays from John Ruddy in between the sticks, it is important to note that they have been playing like a different side since a challenging opening month or so of the campaign.
The Blues have scored only 20 goals from 19 league outings, from chances equating to 22.1 expected goals (xG) for, posting an average of 1.16 xGF per game.
Ruddy’s influence is evident in the hosts’ defensive overperformance, conceding 16 from 26.4 xGA, allowing chances on their own goal at 1.39 xGA per game, with Ellis Simms back from injury Sunderland will be aiming to exploit that.
Sunderland have scored 24 goals, four more than the hosts, but their attacking process is similar to that of the Blues, with the injuries to Ross Stewart and Simms negatively impacting the Black Cats in the last couple of months.
Defensively they are also similar, and the odds do not reflect that with the Blues heading in as firm favourites at close to an odds on price, I am not having that with their schedule.
Goals?
I am leaning on the Asian Handicap for my angle into this fixture, however, an unders play could be a sensible bet under the lights in the second city.
Blues have scored in seven of ten.
Blues have conceded in five of ten.
Blues have seen both teams score in four of ten.
Blues have seen over 2.5 goals in three of ten.
Sunderland have scored in six of ten.
Sunderland have conceded in seven of ten.
Sunderland have seen both teams score in five of ten.
Sunderland have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Nice comfortable winner to kick-off the weekend, 2-1 Sunderland.