Moyes' set piece side will struggle at Villa Park

Dean Smith’s surprisingly excellent Aston Villa side play host to an overperforming West Ham United in the midweek Premier League action on Wednesday. Despite punching above their weight David Moyes deserves a lot of praise for getting the Hammers into fifth now over halfway through the season. They suffered a bit of a reality check, losing 3-1 to Liverpool, the reigning champions catching the eye with a devastating second goal on the counter attack. Ross Barkley grabbed the game’s only goal as the Villans were victorious on the South Coast over Southampton, putting them just three points behind the Hammers and the European spots with two games in hand.

Process

Aston Villa are a very good team. The additions of Ross Barkley and Bertrand Traore have taken some of the attacking strain off of Jack Grealish who has kicked on once again this campaign, with Chelsea, Everton and Tottenham Hotspur stuttering, this is a great chance for them to break into the top six. The turnaround has been remarkable from battling relegation until the final day last season to pushing for Europe in this one, but I honestly think they can sustain this level of performance.

The hosts rank sixth in the expected goals standings, with the Hammers ninth, they have outperformed the visitors in the following four metrics:

Villa have scored 34 goals from 38.5 expected, whereas the Hammers have scored 31 from 33.3. Smith’s men have conceded just 21, fourth least in the division, from 26.0 expected compared to Moyes’ men’s 27 from 27.4 expected. Admittedly we see a defensive overperformance from the Claret and Blue Army but the unity in the camp and bond with Emiliano Martinez between the sticks amd the centre back pairing of Tyrone Mings and Ezri Konsa cannot be underestimated, their never say die attitude fuelled through the coaching of assistant manager John Terry will stand them in good stead for the rest of the campaign.

Goals?

Not for me, I can see Villa keeping it tight while having most of the ball. The Hammers will look to spring on the counter.

• Villa have scored in eight of 10.
• Villa have conceded in five of 10.
• Villa have seen both teams score in four of 10.
• Villa have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
• West Ham have scored in eight of 10.
• West Ham have conceded in five of 10.
• West Ham have seen both teams score in four of 10.
• West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in six of 10, including their last four on the bounce.

The visitors have been very reliant on set pieces for goals lately, if the Villa backline can negate that threat, they look an excellent punt to get the win. Here is a value pick utilising both of those angles.

Aston Villa - West Ham United Betting Tip

Double Chance Aston Villa to Win or Draw + West Ham United to Score Under 1.5 goals with 888sport at odds of 1/1 or 1.99.

Bet Double Chance Aston Villa to Win or Draw + West Ham United to Score Under 1.5 goals on 888sport