Market underestimates the Champions can we pounce?
Catching most by surprise West Ham United have snuck into fourth place thanks to four consecutive Premier League wins as David Moyes continues to exceed expectations in the Hammers’ hotseat. Liverpool on the other hand are in danger of slipping out of the top four, sitting seven points behind league leaders Manchester City, they need to mobilise soon if they are to mount any kind of title challenge. The Reds’ price is inflated and drifting due to Jurgen Klopp’s men’s poor form of late, but let’s not forget just how incredible this team has been in the last few years. They come in as strong favourites and present value in exactly that.
Process
The Hammers’ rise to fourth spot is due to playing more than the teams around them and some things falling their way. In terms of expected goals they sit ninth, this is not a typical fourth place hosts fifth place. West Ham have a sustainable process under Moyes, it tends to often be a defensively focussed one. They are an upper mid table side, scoring 30 goals from 32.1 expected and conceding 24 from 25.2 expected.
Liverpool in the absence of Virgil Van Dijk for the main part have recovered excellently in defence this season, their figures were skewed somewhat earlier in the campaign having lost 7-2 to Aston Villa, yet they have tightened up very well. The Reds have the best attack in the division, there is no debate, ranking first for both measures by scoring 37 goals from 38.7. They sit sixth for goals conceded with 22 and third for expected goals against with 22.7, an impressive recovery. They are without doubt the better team here and despite having a day less to prepare for the fixture, have the squad depth and talent to take all three points.
Goals?
Possibly an angle, an unders play would be more appealing however with the outright price on the Champions looking so big it is a market I will be avoiding.
- West Ham have scored in eight of 10.
- West Ham have conceded in five of 10.
- West Ham have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
- Liverpool have scored six of 10, but have drawn a blank in their last four Premier League games.
- Liverpool have conceded in seven of 10.
- Liverpool have seen both teams score in five of 10.
- Liverpool have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
The opportunity to back a team as good as Liverpool at a price like this, I really cannot pass up.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
A glorious brace from Mohamed Salah’s wand of a left foot helped earn a comfortable 3-1 win. Craig Dawson grabbed a late consolation for the hosts.