The 2020/21 PL season has been a long unders punt
An out of form Aston Villa welcome relegation threatened Fulham to Villa Park this Sunday looking to regather some momentum, the international break certainly came at a convenient time with talisman Jack Grealish recovering from injury. Dean Smith’s men have been very impressive this term, every bit a top 10 possibly top eight side much improved from their season long relegation battle in 2019/20. Fulham looked dead and buried before the turn of the year but have managed to get it together and are competing with Newcastle United for 17th spot as it stands. It is hard one to call coming off the back of the break but one thing is certain, Scott Parker needs to be a lot more adventurous in his offensive tactics if the Cottagers are to maintain their topflight status.
Aston Villa have been unsustainably good defensively and unsustainably poor going forward this term. A regression in defensive numbers could see them slip out of the top 10 where an improvement in finishing will likely see them compete for a top six finish. Which way will the variance swing? - time will tell. The Claret and Blue Army have scored just 39 from 47.8 expected goals and let in 30 from 39.4. Emiliano Martinez has proven an inspired addition between the sticks.
Fulham’s toothless forward line has been a theme of their season, it is mind boggling to me the lack of game time Aleksandar Mitrovic has had since returning to injury. Adopting a defensive first strategy has seen them earn a foothold in their battle against the drop, but you need to win games to survive and Villa’s well drilled back four should cope with the threat they pose. The visitors have scored 23 from 36.8 expected goals, an underperformance of almost 14 goals, while being fortunate to let in 38 from 47.4 expected goals.
It is an unders punt for me, using the Asian goal line for insurance and value is of interest.
- Villa have scored in six of 10.
- Villa have conceded in five of 10.
- Villa have seen both teams score in three of 10.
- Villa have seen over 2.5 goals in two of 10.
- Fulham have scored in five of 10.
- Fulham have conceded in five of 10.
- Fulham have seen both teams score in two of 10.
- Fulham have seen over 2.5 goals in two of 10.
The numbers point towards Villa but their alarming dropoff combined with Fulham’s resurgence makes it tough to find an outright angle. Using the Asian goal line we can secure a half win if there are exactly two goals and a full victory if there is one or less. Such that has come off in 80% of both sides’ last 10 outings.