A pot full of gold and goals
This is it. After 48 games, Aston Villa and Derby will have their season defined by one game. For the winners it’s pure ecstasy, bundles of cash and a place in next season’s Premier League. For the losers, it's pure heartache and the reality of an unpredictable future in the second tier. After all, it’s not labelled the richest game in football for nothing.
Two worthy contenders
Both Villa and Derby have proved themselves worthy of being in this position - one game away from the promised land.
Dean Smith’s Villa may have huffed and puffed en route to eventually progressing against West Brom but laid the foundations with a well-deserved victory at Villa Park in the first leg.
It was the opposite for Frank Lampard’s Derby who went into their second leg away at Leeds with a deficit but managed to stun their nemesis with a spectacular comeback that’ll live long in the memory.
The two contenders arrive at this point fully deserving of their shot at the big time but who has the advantage?
Head-to-head
Villa, with the more experienced personnel and last year’s final defeat to Fulham still fresh in the memory, are favourites to be the ones popping champagne corks on bank holiday Monday.
It’s no surprise when you consider the aggregate score of 7-0 in Villa’s favour thanks to 4-0 and 3-0 victories home and away respectively.
But remember across their meetings with Leeds through the season, Derby were 7-1 down on aggregate prior to that famous night at Elland Road and look how they dealt with that.
Derby’s young Rams appear to be blossoming at just the right moment and are clearly able to cope with the pressure that comes with the big occasion.
Drab affair? Not this one
Looking back at previous finals, the magnitude of the game has clearly played its part in teams almost too scared to make the first move.
A single goal was enough for Fulham last year, a penalty shootout was needed in 2017 following a goalless 120 minutes between Huddersfield and Reading, while Hull broke the deadlock late on in 2016 to edge past Sheffield Wednesday.
You have to go back to 2011 for the last time this occasion produced more than three goals when Swansea and Reading played out a thriller.
Surely, this clash won’t go the same way as those of recent years. Not with the talent on show. Be it Grealish, Abraham, McGinn for Villa, or, Wilson, Mount, Bogle for Derby, both teams have the creativity to unlock a defence and the ammunition to score goals at will.
Aston Villa vs. Derby betting tip
Monday’s showpiece promises to go against the grain of Championship play-off finals gone by and be remembered as one of the more entertaining and most intriguing for some time.
Played against the fascinating backdrop of Lampard vs. Terry and the ramifications for the club that loses, it’s all set to be a classic hence why I’ll be backing over 3.5 goals @ 11/4.
