Fatigued Arsenal low hanging fruit for City
It is always nice to cheer on a good team with a bet and so one of my stronger selections of the week comes when Mikel Arteta plays host to his former employers in Manchester City this Sunday. City are arguably the best team in the world at the moment, having won 16 matches on the bounce with German midfield maestro Ilkay Gundogan in the form of his life, thriving in a more attacking role. Pep Guardiola has regenerated Manchester City after a slow start to the season, the absence of Kevin De Bruyne has not seen a decrease in performance and they are far and away the favourites now to win a third Premier League title in four seasons. There is value in using the Asian Handicap market as the Emirates.
Arsenal are in Rome to play the away leg of their Europa League round of 32 tie with Benfica on Thursday. Whereas City make the short journey to Everton on Wednesday, with an extra day to recover and a lot less miles in their legs, Guardiola’s men have a huge upper hand for this fixture. The Gunners have picked up since the turn of the year and look like they may contend for a top six finish, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was back in form with a hatrick in their last match, a crushing 4-2 victory against Leeds United.
Arsenal have underperformed in offense so far this season, scoring 31 from 34.1 expected goals however it has been their defensive process that has paved the way to a push back up the table, following to faintest murmurs of a relegation battle in the earlier knockings of the campaign. They have been a little fortunate to let in just 25 goals from chances equating to 29.7 expected goals, with a fourth best defensive process in the division.
City have the second best attack in the league and comfortably the best defence in the league, a solid combination in gunning for a league title. This new look beast under Guardiola has been built from the back and they are reaping the rewards now. They have scored 46 from 47.5 expected and conceded just 14 from 18.1 expected. Outstanding data.
Not an angle for me, I am predicting a fatigued Arsenal to struggle in this one with the Europa League a more likely route to Champions League qualification for them this term.
- Arsenal have scored in six of 10.
- Arsenal have conceded in five of 10.
- Arsenal have seen both teams score in three of 10.
- Arsenal have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
- City have scored in 10 of 10, they have not drawn in blank for 17 games.
- City have conceded in three of 10.
- City have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- City have seen over 2.5 goals in six of 10.
City all day long for me, a -1 start presents value at just under evens.