Conte to handle Udinese test with respect
One of the biggest underperformers in Europe’s top five leagues play host to Antonio Conte’s Inter Milan on Saturday evening, fresh off a 2-0 win over Juventus in their quest to win a long overdue Scudetto. Udinese are 15th in the table yet boast arguably the best defence in the division, such that were they without it would put them firmly in a relegation dogfight. The visitors come in as firm favourites knowing that a victor could see them top Serie A.
Process
The White and Blacks have been a mainstay in the Italian topflight this century but have certainly regressed over the last few years, flirting with the drop more and more as it goes on. Their statistics in the league table are not pretty reading but in terms of expected goals and their underlying process they are much better than 15th place suggests. The hosts have scored just 19 goals from 27 expected and conceded a whopping 27 from 17.4 expected. Such an underperformance is not sustainable, if they continue to create that many chances and concede that little quality of chances then their fortunes will definitely turn around at some point. Their goal difference is -8 and in stark contrast Udinese expected goal difference is +9.6 this is not a side that should remain in the relegation conversation.
In terms of Inter they are looking comfortably the best attacking team in the league, Conte’s three at the back system plays perfectly into their strengths with marquee summer signing Achraf Hakimi at right wing back adapting to the division nicely. They are trending as title winners in offense but sit sixth in both defensive metrics conceding 23 goals from 22.9 expected.
Goals?
Not for me, Inter have been impressive at the back lately taming the Old Lady’s lucrative attacking contingent last time out. A win to nil would not be a surprise however both teams to score has cropped up more likely than I had anticipated for the hosts.
- Udinese have scored in seven of 10.
- Udinese have conceded in eight of 10.
- Udinese have seen both teams score in seven of 10, including their last four on the bounce.
- Udinese have seen over 2.5 goals in six of 10, including their last four on the bounce.
- Inter have scored in nine of 10.
- Inter have conceded in seven of 10.
- Inter have seen both teams score in seven of 10.
- Inter have seen over 2.5 goals in six of 10.
This could play out quite narrow, with Conte’s defence gaining confidence. Inter have the capabilities to limit Udinese’s attacking forces and sit on a lead.
Udinese - Inter Milan Betting Tip
Under 3.5 goals + Udinese to Score Under 1.5 goals with bet365 at odds of 3/4 or 1.75.
Bet Under 3.5 goals + Udinese to Score Under 1.5 goals on Bet365
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Inter had the better of a goalless draw.