Sense of occasion to limit goals in Inter Vs Juve
In the Serie A showpiece this weekend Antonio Conte meets his former club and Andrea Pirlo at the San Siro. Inter Milan are sat in second place and welcome Juventus in fourth, four points behind them but with a game in hand. Similar to Manchester City in the Premier League and Barcelona in La Liga, the Old Lady are getting it together. Conte’s men have dropped four points in their last two games, falling to a surprise defeat away to Sampdoria and conceding an equaliser to draw 2-2 with red hot Roma last time out. Despite Juve’s resurgence Inter come in as narrow favourites, but Cristiano Ronaldo and co will be licking their lips at the chance to take all three points and to be in touching distance of the summit of Serie A.
This matchup according to expected goals sees Inter with a title winning attack but a defence trending in the Europa League spots host a Juve side with a title winning defence and a top four competitive attack. The Black and Blues continue to overperform in front of goal with their awesome striking duo of Lautaro Martinez and Romelu Lukaku. They have scored 43 from 37.4 expected goals and conceded 23 from 22.4. The visitors have a sustainable process and despite their league position, the best in the league, scoring 35 from 34.1 expected and conceding 16 from 15.8. A tenth straight Scudetto is getting more and more realistic by the week, their 3-1 win at the San Siro over early season pacesetters AC Milan in their last away outing will give them confidence and belief for this meeting.
Naturally with the entertaining style of Serie A this season, overs is the logical play. However I feel that both managers would be content with a draw in this match, a loss concerning them and where it would leave them in the table. So due to the occasion rather than the recent form, I have found an unders selection that provides value.
- Inter have scored in nine of 10.
- Inter have conceded in eight of 10.
- Inter have seen both teams score in eight of 10.
- Inter have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of 10, including their last five on the bounce.
- Juve have scored in nine of 10.
- Juve have conceded in seven of 10, including their last four on the bounce.
- Juve have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Juve have seen over 2.5 goals in nine of 10.
It is a controversial unders play that goes slightly against the grain but using the Asian goal line for insurance, my tip is under 3 goals.