Market too big on goals

Toronto take on Atlanta United in desperate need of a result in the Eastern Conference.

The hosts would have built some confidence with a 4-0 win over CF Montreal last time out, currently sitting in 12th place.

The visitors have been performing better than Toronto so far this season, but there is still a long way to go.

That said, the eight point gap between the Reds and the play-off places will be very concerning and allowing Atlanta to extend their cushion on them, on their home patch, would be a very disappointing outcome.

The visitors come in as favourites due to Toronto’s below par start to the campaign.


The Five Stripes have been fairly solid at the back in 2022, conceded 20 from 18.5 expected goals (xG) against in 14 encounters, at an average of 1.32 xGA per game.

Toronto have been very poor going forward, and even if they do shore themselves up at the back, they are not creating chances at a rate that will allow them to break into the top seven conversation.

The Reds have scored 21 goals from 15 matches in MLS, but from just 15.3 xGF, an unsustainable overperformance that will only dent their chances of climbing the table, creating just 1.02 xGF per game on average.

Defensively it has not been good either for the hosts, conceding 29 goals in 15 games from 30.4 xGA, at an average of 2.03 xGA per game.

Given some of the quality in the Atlanta attacking contingent, there will be a lot of optimism in the visitors’ camp.


Despite the numbers, Atlanta have been far from solid at the back and therefore the hosts will back themselves to get on the scoresheet.

Although, the market makes unders a value bet so I am going to lean on the Asian Goal Line in this one.

  • Toronto have scored in six of ten.

  • Toronto have conceded in nine of ten.

  • Toronto have seen both teams score in five of ten.

  • Toronto have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.

  • Atlanta have scored in nine of ten.

  • Atlanta have conceded in seven of ten.

  • Atlanta have seen both teams score in seven of ten.

  • Atlanta have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of ten.

Toronto - Atlanta United Betting Tip

Under 3.25 Asian goals with bet365 at odds of 17/20 or 1.85.

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