Two brittle backlines meet on Friday evening
This Friday night’s Ligue 1 action sees struggling Strasbourg play host to a Rennes side looking to compete for Champions League qualification for the second consecutive year. Both teams are experiencing a difficult period at the moment, with five losses in their last six and the visitors in action hosting Chelsea in midweek could see them come into this one a little undercooked. The Racers are in one of their toughest runs since promotion to Ligue 1 and need to get something on Friday evening, currently two points from safety. The hosts are quite a longshot to win this one but have improved their attacking process in recent weeks, if they can tighten up they will fancy themselves to achieve a positive result.
Goals on the cards?
In terms of expected goals Strasbourg are currently in a false position. They are ninth in a table based off of expected points and have actually created some of the most clear cut chances in the division. They have underperformed in front of goal, losing out 4-3 at Montpellier last time out, only scoring 13 to chances equating to 15.8 expected goals, the fifth highest in the division after 11 games. It has been dreadful defensively, however they have still been conceding more than the chances they have allowed suggest they should have been conceding 23 goals, the most in the league, from 17.4 expected goals.
Rennes have also underperformed in a defensive sense, letting in 15 goals from just 6.6 expected goals against, which would rank them the second most watertight backline in the division. Maybe suffering somewhat from the loss of goalkeeper Edouard Mendy to Chelsea. Friday evening provides an opportunity to score their first goal in three league games, having drawn a blank against Bordeaux and Paris Saint-Germain, they should be able to breach the most leaky defence in Ligue 1.
However I give the hosts a good chance of getting on the scoresheet themselves, they look good in offense, finally having some joy converting three opportunities in their last match. Also, despite Rennes excellent defensive process something is going wrong, they rank a mid table side for goals conceded and if Strasbourg can create as much as they have in recent weeks then the form suggests they will find the net. Strasbourg have scored in six of eight, conceded in nine of 11 whereas Rennes have only scored in one of five, but have only kept one clean sheet in their last 14.
Justified above, my angle is both teams to score, there is motive for each team to go hell for leather and the return to fitness of M’Baye Niang will boost the visitors’ attacking contingent.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
This one came in by the hour mark, strong start to the weekend.