Blades to bore Magpies and sneak first win?
This may not be one for the neutral but when hopeless Sheffield United host Steve Bruce’s Newcastle on Tuesday evening there is value for us punters. Both teams are trending as relegation battlers leading to an expected evenly matched affair as Chris Wilder’s men look to build on their narrow FA Cup victory over League One outfit Bristol Rovers. With the Blades still looking for their first three points of the season, a Magpies side who played 120 minutes against Arsenal at the weekend provide one of the better opportunities for the rock bottom side to fill their boots. We saw Schalke get over their winless run hoodoo in the Bundesliga at the weekend, maybe the Blades can join them, they come in as favourites.
Newcastle’s form particularly in their attacking numbers has been extremely concerning since the loss of star forward Allan Saint-Maximin to injury and though they had chances, it was a toothless display at the Emirates Stadium. Bruce’s men have a sustainable process, but one that indicates they will be in the relegation conversation for the majority of the season. The Magpies have scored 18 goals, ranking 16th and conceded 26, ranking 15th, these figures coming from 17.4 expected goals for and 25.5 expected goals against.
Sheff U’s horror run has to come to an end at some point, I am not saying they will compete to stay up, but their process has not been that of a side who has two points to their name or that even deserves to be propping up the division. Wilder continues to rotate his frontmen staying loyal to his 3-5-2 system, as his forwards persist to underperform in finishing terms. They have created chances equating to 17.5 expected goals, marginally more than Tuesday’s visitors, and yet have only converted eight of those opportunities. With a defensive process that ranks them 17th, conceding 29 goals from 29.0 expected, consistent.
This fixture jumps out at me as an unders bet. Combined with getting against both teams scoring provides value. Both clubs recent results point me in that direction.
- Blades have scored in four of 10.
- Blades have scored in 10 of 10.
- Blades have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- Blades have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
- Newcastle have scored in five of 10.
- Newcastle have conceded in nine of 10.
- Newcastle have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
I am not expecting fireworks, the standard of Premier League games has dipped in the relentless schedule.