Sao Paulo rightful favourites on Saturday evening
Sao Paulo take on Goias at Estadio do Morumbi on Saturday evening in hoping to climb the Brazilian Serie A table.
The hosts have been trending as one of the better sides in the division so far this season, but are languishing down in ninth place, nine points off the pace of Palmeiras at the summit.
Goias are one of the poorer teams in the division and are fortunate to be as high as 13th, with the hosts understandably strong favourites to pick up three points.
The visitors have been conceding a lot of chances, but surprisingly not too many goals, and if that continues, it is likely that this match represents something of a home banker for Sao Paulo.
Process
Santos have underperformed to score only 22 from 27.0 expected goals (xG) from 17 outings so far this season, the eighth best attacking process in the division, but certainly one that will need to improve if they are to surprise a few of the teams above them.
Defensively, they have been more impressive, conceding just 18 in 17 games from 21.1 xGA, an overperformance but are more sustainable one that their lack of clinicality in the final third.
It is a solid process and not one of a side who will be sat ninth in the table for very long if they can sustain these performance levels.
Goias are unsustainably overperforming and rank rock bottom of the division based on expected points.
The Big Green have scored just 16 from 17 games from 21.3 xGF, suggesting that they should be finding the net with more regularity.
Defensively, it is entirely unsustainable for them to keep conceding so little, Goias have let in just 19 goals from 17 games, despite conceding 32.8 xGA, the worst defensive process in the league.
Goals?
On the cards, I am taking a pro-goals angle to enhance the favourites’ outright price here.
Sao Paulo have scored in seven of ten.
Sao Paulo have conceded in seven of ten.
Sao Paulo have seen both teams score in six of ten.
Sao Paulo have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Goias have scored in five of ten.
Goias have conceded in seven of ten.
Goias have seen both teams score in four of ten.
Goias have seen over 2.5 goals in three of ten.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
3-3.