Slipping Millers face tough Tykes test
The Millers hosting of the Tykes this Tuesday night is my EFL value selection this week, Valerien Ismael’s youthful side have been on an excellent run, grinding out some narrow wins that stands them in good stead for the physical battle Paul Warne’s men possess. The fixture 10th visit 21st place and in this case the league table does not lie when we look into the quality of the two teams. Newly promoted Rotherham have been tottering above the relegation scrap for a few weeks too many now and it is becoming clear that they are in for a long and hard campaign. Barnsley come in as narrow favourites but present value, Ismael has turned them into a mid table side.
Process
The league table translates quite effectively when we look into the expected goals data behind these two sides. The Millers rank the same place, 21st, in the expected goals table with their defensive numbers being a huge concern. They have been unlucky to create 24.6 expected goals this season and to only see 18 goal scored, some wasteful finishing can be partly to blame for that underperformance. They have the third worst defensive process in the division, allowing 29.8 expected goals and being slightly fortunate to see that translate into just 27 goals conceded, the same amount as the visitors.
The Tykes are trending as a slap bang mid table side, given the age of their squad and difficult start to the season under Gerhard Struber that would be an impressive achievement if they can sustain that position. They have been a little unfortunate to let in 27 goals from 25.3 expected goals, but their process is sustainable and indicates that they will hover around 14th to 9th place for the rest of the campaign.
Goals?
Despite both teams being a little leaky at the back, goals is not an angle I want to get involved with. There have been a lot of fixtures in quick succession in recent weeks and therefore this match not living up to the hype would not be such a huge surprise. Instead I am looking to get Barnsley on side, they are a much better team.
- Rotherham have scored in six of 10.
- Rotherham have conceded in 10 of 10.
- Rotherham have seen both teams score in five of 10.
- Rotherham have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
- Barnsley have scored in seven of 10.
- Barnsley have conceded in nine of 10.
- Barnsley have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Barnsley have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of 10.
Ismael trumps Warne, with better players at his disposal and the momentum of some narrow wins in recent weeks, they can get the win on Tuesday night.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Cauley Woodrow and Alex Mowatt got the goals as the Tykes claimed all three points. 2-1.