Mourinho onside in a big game
A very exciting Rome derby takes centre stage on Sunday evening as Roma take on Lazio at Stadio Olimpico.
Jose Mourinho has been making gradual progress with the Yellow and Reds after last season’s Europa Conference League triumph and they have shown a lot of promise at the beginning of this campaign.
In terms of an angle into this fixture, there is one side whose results are backed up by the underlying numbers where the other is unsustainably overperforming.
Lazio have been flying above the radar for quite a while under Maurizio Sarri but especially with Sergej Milinkovic-Savic suspended they are rightful outsiders heading into this one.
Process
Roma have underperformed to score 16 goals from chances equating to 25.1 expected goals (xG), posting a very healthy average of 2.09 xGF per game.
Roma rank second on expected points and are putting together a very encouraging campaign as far as future silverware is concerned under Mourinho.
In the defensive third they have been nothing short of sensational.
The Yellow and Reds have conceded 11 goals from 12 league outings, but from chances equating to a miniscule 7.5 xGA, allowing chances on their own goal at an average of 0.63 xGA per game.
Lazio have scored 24 goals from 16.2 xG, not at the level of the hosts in their attacking process which is at 1.35 xGF per game at the moment, not good enough if they want to qualify for European football this season.
The visitors will rise to the challenge and in goals terms their rearguard has outperformed that of the hosts, overperforming to only be breached eight times in 12 outings, despite allowing shooting opportunities that total up at 15.2 xGA, at an average of 1.27 xGA per game.
Goals?
Given the ferocity of the fixture this could be an angle in, however Roma’s underlying numbers suggest they have a fairly good chance of keeping a clean sheet.
Roma have scored in eight of ten.
Roma have conceded in eight of ten.
Roma have seen both teams score in six of ten.
Roma have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Lazio have scored in eight of ten.
Lazio have conceded in four of ten.
Lazio have seen both teams score in four of ten.
Lazio have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of ten.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
1-0 Lazio, Maurizio Sarri's men upset the odds.