Respect Roma for this Sunday morning belter
Sunday’s Serie A action will be kicked off by a top of the table clash at the Stadio Olimpico. A Roma on impressive form following on from a disappointing couple of seasons host Inter Milan, many people’s title favourites given the unpredictability of the campaign so far. Paulo Fonseca has been given time to mold this team into one that can contend for the Scudetto and making light work of the lower ranked clubs has built some good momentum coming into this fixture. Inter slipped up away to Sampdoria last time out, where a win would have taken them to the summit. They are however narrow favourites and you can be sure that Antonio Conte will get a reaction from the squad.
Roma have posted consistently outstanding numbers this term and rank top of the tree on expected goals. That is compared to third in the table, so there are plenty of reasons for optimism going into this one, they have underperformed in both boxes, sustain the impressive process and the results plus a spot in next season’s Champions League will not be an issue. The Yellow and Reds have scored 35 goals from 39.3 expected, if Edin Dzeko, Borja Mayoral and the rest of the frontline can be more clinical then a title push will be achievable. They have also conceded 21 goals from 17.4 expected, so have maybe been a little unlucky with the finishing form of their opposition.
Inter are not as good in terms of expected goals, they sit fifth on that metric compared to fifth in the table. Having massively overperformed in an attacking sense such is the reward of having world class strikers in Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez. They have slammed home 41 goals, the most in the division, from 34.5 expected goals, not the most sustainable but with their current attacking potency I will let it slide. There has been a slight overperformance in defence, letting 21 from 22.4 expected, sitting fifth and seventh for those metrics. Samir Handanovic may not stand just as firm all season long.
Definitely an angle for me, but with the chance each side tightens up in a big game with the top end of the table so tight, I am looking at the both teams to score market.
- Roma have scored in eight of 10.
- Roma have conceded in eight of 10.
- Roma have seen both teams score in seven of 10.
- Roma have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of 10.
- Inter have scored in nine of 10.
- Inter have conceded in seven of 10.
- Inter have seen both teams score in seven of 10.
- Inter have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of 10.
This season’s Roma have been refreshing to watch and have taken many by surprise, so I am not writing them in this one.