Value to pounce on at the Kiyan Prince
Queens Park Rangers welcome Nottingham Forest in Friday evening’s Championship action hoping to break back into the play-off places with a victory. Mark Warburton’s men were knocked out of the League Cup on Tuesday evening by Sunderland on penalties and therefore have significantly less recovery compared to the visitors. Forest suffered a reality check to lose 4-0 at home to Fulham last time out, however the performance was not as concerning as the scoreline suggests. Steve Cooper’s men have also won their last four away games, this really is a mouth-watering encounter to kick-off the weekend.
Process
Rangers have won four, drawn two and lost one in seven home league games so far this season with the one coming against Bristol City. In the expected goals (xG) standings QPR rank 15th compared to seventh in the table with Forest a side on the up the bookmakers have the hosts too short for me.
Rangers have been better going forward this season but all season-long data, we have to factor in the Reds’ upturn since Chris Hughton’s departure into our thinking. QPR have overperformed to score 25 from 18.7 xG which ranks them 12th averaging 1.34 xGF per game. The hosts have been leaky at the back, heavily reliant on Rob Dickie to provide solidity in front of Seny Dieng and are allowing 1.37 xGA ranking them 17th for defensive process.
Forest were desperately poor in the final third in the opening exchanges of the season but with loanees Djed Spence and Max Lowe coming in towards the end of the window and fitting in perfectly at wing back it is a completely new look side. You cannot measure confidence on a spreadsheet and Cooper has clearly given a lift to so many players in the side with Brennan Johnson thriving under him.
Goals?
Definitely a potential angle but not one I will be getting involved with as the outright market presents enough value.
- Rangers have scored in nine of ten.
- Rangers have conceded in seven of ten.
- Rangers have seen both teams score in seven of ten.
- Rangers have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of ten.
- Forest have scored in eight of ten.
- Forest have conceded in eight of ten.
- Forest have seen both teams score in six of ten.
- Forest have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Forest are far too big for me and I will be pouncing on that in utilising the Asian Handicap.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Jack Colback gets us a late late win.