Value on visitors in huge Portuguese encounter
Porto will be aiming to address the gap between themselves and Benfica at the top of the Primeira Liga when they welcome the Eagles to the Dragao on Friday evening.
The Dragons have won the title in two of the last three seasons and will be aiming to go back-to-back this time around.
Sergio Conceicao’s men are favourites to take all three points, with the bookies showing a lot of respect to the hosts, despite being second best in both boxes to Benfica so far this season.
Benfica have plenty of reasons to feel optimistic about extending their lead at the top, having only dropped points once so far this season in a goalless draw at Vitoria Guimaraes.
Process
There will often be very impressive goal return and points totals in the Primeira Liga due to the quality of the likes of Porto, Benfica, Sporting and Braga compared to the rest of the league, and it will be interesting to see if the title race remains close for the remainder of the campaign.
Benfica have been fairly comfortably better than Porto in both boxes over the first nine league games of the season.
Benfica have scored 23 goals from 24.4 expected goals (xG) for at an average of 2.71 xGF per game, where the hosts are still creating chances at a healthy rate but at 2.36 per game.
The defence has been incredible, Benfica have conceded five goals in nine games from chances equating to 3.0 xGA, allowing shooting opportunities on their own goal at just 0.33 xGA per game.
Porto are limiting the opposition to 1.03 xGA per game, not a patch on Benfica’s defensive process but still one that will keep them towards the top end of the division.
Goals?
Benfica’s defensive record makes it hard to get on board with a goals angle in this one, a draw may be considered a positive result for the visitors and Porto have hardly been giving up high quality chances with regularity.
Porto have scored in nine of ten.
Porto have conceded in four of ten.
Porto have seen both teams score in three of ten.
Porto have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Benfica have scored in nine of ten.
Benfica have conceded in six of ten.
Benfica have seen both teams score in six of ten.
Benfica have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
1-0 Benfica, Rafa Silva.