Toothless Herons to struggle in Orlando
Orlando City play host to Inter Miami in the early hours of Sunday morning in hoping to maintain their position in the play-offs in the Eastern Conference.
The Herons are not a million miles away as far as the division is concerned, three points off of the play-offs, with a strong end to the league season needed to book their spot.
The hosts are punching above their weight looking into the data, but are still fairly strong favourites at an odds on price to win the game on their home patch.
That price is a little short for me, and you could find value in a hesitant play with the visitors.
Process
Orlando have overperformed in the attacking third, though not unsustainably, but they are not playing like a side at the moment, who are capable of making a deep run in the competition, even if they can keep themselves in the top seven.
The hosts have scored 23 goals from 21.7 expected goals (xG) for at an average of 1.21 xGF per game.
The Lions have a healthy enough defensive process, but definitely one that asks a lot of their attacking contingent for them to pick up positive results on a consistent basis.
They have conceded 28 from 25.1 xGA in 18 games, at an average of 1.39 xGA per game, which is superior to that of Inter Miami.
The Herons have scored only 18 goals in 17 games so far this term, from 20.6 xGF, creating chances at the exact same rate as the hosts, 1.21 xGF per game, allowing the opposition 1.52 xGA on their own goal per match.
Goals?
Unders could be the way to go here, the visitors are not convincing in attack and a point could be a solid result for the hosts to keep them at bay in the Conference.
Orlando have scored in seven of ten.
Orlando have conceded in nine of ten.
Orlando have seen both teams score in seven of ten.
Orlando have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Herons have scored in six of ten.
Herons have conceded in seven of ten.
Herons have seen both teams score in five of ten.
Herons have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
1-0 Orlando, comfortable.