Ashley's faith is misplaced in Bruce
As the end draws nearer for Steve Bruce, his toothless Magpies host one of the surprise packages of the season in Aston Villa. After narrowly surviving the drops last term but it has been some transformation from the Claret and Blue Army, posting some of the best defensive figures in the division. Dean Smith’s side come in as value favourites bang on evens, it will be touch and go whether Jack Grealish is fit enough to start the game however I have faith in their attacking contingent outside of the England international. Unlike last term, they now have creative and offensive quality in Ross Barkley and Bertrand Traore who can be counted on.
Process
The Toon Army are firmly in the mix for relegation and with two winnable games earning them two points in their last two outings, this one will be a lot tougher. Villa are a comfortable top half outfit with one of the best defences in the league, as for Newcastle, they have underperformed slightly to score 27 goals from 29.4 expected this term, ranking them 15th and 16th respectively. Bruce imposes a defence first style and that has seen trend perfectly in line with expected goals, conceding 44 from 44, putting them in 16th the same as their league position. Newcastle are one point above the in-form Fulham in 18th.
The visitors have scored 38 goals this season, a massive underperformance and one that will not continue if they can sustain the creation of such good chances on a consistent basis. They have created chances equating to 46.2 expected goals this season, the fifth highest. I rate Villa a lot, they have conceded just 27, ranking them third, however at a colossal overperformance, allowing 36.1 expected goals against. Emiliano Martinez has been a terrific summer addition.
Goals?
An unders play does entice me, under 2.5 is just below evens and looks a great punt but such is my faith in Villa, I would rather back them outright.
- Newcastle have scored in six of 10.
- Newcastle have conceded in eight of 10.
- Newcastle have seen both teams score in five of 10.
- Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
- Villa have scored in seven of 10.
- Villa have conceded in four of 10.
- Villa have seen both teams score in three of 10.
- Villa have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
Newcastle have desire and endeavour but I am not sure they have the quality to test decent sides without Allan Saint-Maximin, Callum Wilson and Miguel Almiron.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
A Jamaal Lascelles 94th minute equaliser scuppers us this time. 1-1.