Malmö to stand their ground
Malmö FF
Swedish team Malmö FF head into this match against Premier League giants Chelsea with no competitive match practice since early December. This could get messy right? Well... I'm not so sure. If we're talking about progressing over both legs, then sure, I think Chelsea will make it, but I do believe that in their current form they are going to struggle in chilly southern Sweden tomorrow.
Malmö FF showed in the group stages how much the Europa League meant to them, and at home they are exceptionally strong. They'll certainly be buoyed by Chelsea's recent poor run of form and the fact that it looks like Chelsea will be sending a reserve XI.
Malmö FF on the other hand have a fully fit squad. They fielded a strong team in their practice match against Dynamo Kiev - which they drew 0-0 - and I think that they'll field pretty much the same team against Chelsea on Thursday. I believe that at home Malmö FF will not concede more than two goals. Up front however, I don't see them scoring. Even though the Blues are fielding a reserve team, they'll still have quality at the back.
Chelsea
This team simply have to show some intent after their embarrassing 0-6 loss to Manchester City. But will that mean that Sarri will field their strongest team in the Europa League? No - I doubt it. We can expect the normal "Europa League-eleven" which Sarri likes to rely on for these occasions - so we can forget about seeing Hazard and their new signing Higuaín. Up front he will field players like Giroud and Hudson-Odoi and behind them Loftus-Cheek and Kovacic. At the back Sarri will most likely play Cahill and Christiansen.
I expect that although they might not offer that much upfront, Chelsea won't really be challenged at the back by a Malmö FF who have not played a competitive game since the 13 December - against Beşiktaş - since the Swedish league has a different schedule due to their colder climate.
I think there is also the psychological factor - the Chelsea players will be aware that if they don't perform brilliantly in Sweden, they'll have a pretty easy return leg at Stamford Bridge. I think this will mean that they never really give 100%.
Malmö FF haven't played a competitive game since December
You also have to remember that Chelsea are fighting on many fronts right now, including the FA Cup and Carabao Cup. Since Chelsea will meet both Manchester teams in these competitions (they play Man Utd four days after this fixture) and Spurs in the league, Sarri will encourage his men to save some energy for these games.
Betting tip
If Chelsea had already been knocked out of the domestic competitions and hadn't been battered by Man City I would not have chosen this bet. But taking their current predicament into account, I just don't see them scoring more than two goals against Malmö FF. The southern Swedes will give everything, but against a world class defence I don't see them scoring.
I think an under 3 goal Asian handicap is a sensible choice (you get your money back with exactly three goals). The best odds are with bet365 at 3/4 (1.75)
