Friday night entertainment on the cards in Germany

Mainz host Hertha Berlin in Friday evening’s Bundesliga action in aiming to continue their positive start to the season.

Hertha came mightily close to suffering relegation to the 2. Bundesliga last term, but were able to come from behind to save themselves in the relegation play-off against Hamburg.

The hosts have enjoyed a couple of seasons of promise in the German top-flight having previously flirted with the drop themselves.

Expectations seem to have been reduced, despite heavy investment, after a difficult last few seasons for Hertha, and they travel to Mainz as firm outsiders.

Mainz are very short with the market, and given Hertha’s goal threat there could be a smidgeon of value on the visitors.


It is important not to read too much into early season expected goals (xG) data, with fixture difficulty potentially meaning that certain teams’ data will be worse than others, because they have come up against tougher teams.

The Old Lady have been the more impressive attacking unit so far this season, having scored six goals from 8.9 xGF, ranking them ninth, just inside the top half, of the division for their attacking process.

The underperformance should not be too concerning given the small sample size and Sandro Schwarz’s men will be confident of breaching the Mainz backline at some point.

The hosts have also scored six goals in as many games but from lower quality chances and, as per expected points, they are overperforming to be sat in sixth heading into this encounter.

There is not a huge amount between the two teams with the data, and therefore it is a surprise to see Hertha at such a big price.

There is attacking talent in the side and they produced a threatening display last time out in a 2-2 draw with Bayer Leverkusen.


It is hard to rely on Hertha after the last few seasons of disappointment, so I am more comfortable taking a goals angle in this fixture.

  • Mainz have scored in five of seven.

  • Mainz have conceded in four of seven.

  • Mainz have seen both teams score in three of seven.

  • Mainz have seen over 2.5 goals in five of seven.

  • Hertha have scored in five of seven.

  • Hertha have conceded in six of seven.

  • Hertha have seen both teams score in four of seven.

  • Hertha have seen over 2.5 goals in three of seven.

Mainz - Hertha Berlin Betting Tip

Both Teams to Score with bet365 at odds of 3/4 or 1.75.

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