Leeds to make amends with xG Vs stubborn Hammers?
There is potential for some outstanding Friday evening entertainment when Leeds host West Ham, both sides have been free scoring and the hosts free conceding so far this term, expect no changes when Marcelo Bielsa meets David Moyes. By far the strongest of the promoted teams Leeds United have been a joy to watch, producing brilliant matches with Liverpool, Manchester City and did well to beat Everton at Goodison Park recently. They are yet to prove themselves however against mid table to bottom half sides, showing a brittle nature at defending the counter attack. The Hammers will be ready and waiting to pounce, despite coming in as outsiders.
Process
Leeds have been one of the bigger underperformers in the league, sitting 14th compared to eighth in the expected goals table. They have scored 16 goals from 18.9 expected goals, the fourth most in the division but have struggled to acclimatise defensively, conceding 20, the third most, from 21.2 expected goals. Patrick Bamford’s overperformance at the start of the season has regressed to the mean a touch, but he will still be a menace for the Hammers to contend with.
David Moyes’ men have overperformed but not by much, they have been surprisingly solid at the back, the move to a defensive three has worked a treat. Posting the fifth best rearguard action having let in just 14 goals, to chances equating to 15.5 expected goals and are in mid table for goals scored, 18 from 17.6 expected goals. Whether or not they can contain the Leeds attacking contingent will determine how this match pans out. Sit in and get a foothold and the Hammers have a great chance of a positive result, I fully believe they will get on the scoresheet, they could get overwhelmed by the talent at Bielsa’s disposal.
Goals?
They are certainly on the cards for me, the angle is getting on both teams to score combined with another selection to enhance value.
- Leeds have scored in 10 of 12.
- Leeds have conceded in eight of 12.
- Leeds have seen both teams score in seven of 12.
- West Ham have scored in 12 of 12.
- West Ham have conceded in eight of 12.
- West Ham have seen both teams score in eight of 12.
The Hammers backline suggests that this one will not go completely goal crazy, however if the Whites have some early success I would expect this one to kick into gear, and could be end to end.
The prospect of a thriller looks more likely than ever in this fixture, but crucially if Leeds start well. I think the Hammers can contain them and stick in to cause them problems.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
A comfortable winner to kick off the weekend. BTTS came in by half time and just three goals in the game, 2-1 Hammers.