Goals regression to get on in Rome
Lazio welcome Atalanta on Saturday evening in what could be a wonderful piece of weekend entertainment if their recent matches have been anything to go by.
Maurizio Sarri’s men have been regressing a touch after unsustainably overperforming in front of goal this season, but with Atalanta coming to Rome, the Kings of the goal-laden game, anything could happen in this one.
La Dea have fallen away from their distant Scudetto hopes prior to the winter break but will view their trip to the Stadio Olimpico as an opportunity to get back on track.
There are rightful favourites at a very backable price.
Process
Atalanta are trending as a much better side than Lazio and the gap between the two sides in the data, provides the justification for the market’s stance.
La Dea are averaging 1.76 expected goals (xG) for per game compared to 1.38 for the hosts.
Lazio have scored two more goals in the league this season than La Dea, but at an unsustainable rate.
Atalanta are also the better side defensively and are only allowing 1.16 xGA per game.
Atalanta earned a good point against table topping Inter Milan last time out and they can build on that strong showing in the capital.
The frantic nature of Lazio’s matches this season is slowing up, Ciro Immobile remains as deadly as ever but his supporting cast are not at a level that Atalanta cannot contain.
Goals?
The lines are too high given the regression that is set to take place in the Lazio frontline.
Atalanta will look to control the game and ensure they extend the gap between themselves and Juventus in fifth place.
- Lazio have scored in eight of ten.
- Lazio have conceded in seven of ten.
- Lazio have seen both teams score in seven of ten.
- Lazio have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of ten.
- Atalanta have scored in eight of ten.
- Atalanta have conceded in five of ten.
- Atalanta have seen both teams score in five of ten.
- Atalanta have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Atalanta are the better side here and may well represent value in the outright market.
However, using the Asian Goal Line and pouncing on under three goals looks too good to refuse.
The bet only loses if there are four or more goals in the game.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
You cannot outperform expected goals for very long, we take a comfortable winner. 0-0.