Ipswich to make up for lost time v improving Rams
Ipswich Town will be looking to bounce back from a surprise 1-0 defeat at home to Lincoln City last time out, when Derby County arrive at Portman Road in front of the Sky Sports cameras on Friday evening.
Paul Warne has made a promising start with the Rams, no one can argue with his record of three promotions from League One in years gone by, but that said, the Tractor Boys in their current guise are one of the best teams that Warne will have come up against at the level.
Kieran McKenna has been a revelation in Suffolk since replacing Paul Cook in the dugout last season, and despite suffering a small blip in the last month or so, it still feels very likely that Ipswich comfortably secure automatic promotion back to the Championship this term.
Process
Plymouth Argyle opened up a four-point cushion at the top of the division at the weekend, which will only increase Ipswich’s determination.
The hosts won the shot count 33-3 in their 1-0 defeat to Lincoln, Derby could be in for a pummelling if they allow them anything close to that.
Ipswich have overperformed to score 27 goals from 18.3 expected goals (xG) for this season, an unsustainable start to the season, but the quality of defences and goalkeepers can make xG data a little less important when selecting a bet in the EFL.
Derby are not the finished article yet, swapping Liam Rosenior for Warne in the dugout represents a significant change in style of play, and though that of Warne is probably simpler, it feels like the Rams are going to be more of a threat against the best in the division towards the end of the campaign or even the next.
Ipswich are only allowing 0.81 xGA per game so far this season, a superb defensive process that has been outstanding since McKenna entered the building.
Goals?
Not a runner for me, there is enough value in using the Asian Handicap and getting with the hosts.
Ipswich have scored in nine of ten.
Ipswich have conceded in five of ten.
Ipswich have seen both teams score in four of ten.
Ipswich have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Derby have scored in nine of ten.
Derby have conceded in seven of ten.
Derby have seen both teams score in six of ten.
Derby have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Wes Burns earns us a half win, 1-0.