Cautiously opposing Inter Miami
Inter Miami host Minnesota United in a cross-conference encounter in the early hours of Sunday morning.
The Herons are five points off of the play-offs in the Eastern Conference and will be banking on a strong home performance to kickstart their campaign and close the gap.
Minnesota on the other hand, are one place lower in the Western Conference, sat in 11th place, but are only two points off of the top seven and will have that in their minds when they arrive at DRV PNK Stadium.
Both sides have a negative goal difference, the hosts more concerningly than the Loons, giving them some work to do to climb the table.
Minnesota have overperformed defensively unsustainably, conceding just 17 goals from 22.7 expected goals (xG) against, at an average of 1.51 xGA per game.
The Loons still have a marginally better defensive process than the hosts, but with a considerable journey to travel it is hard to argue against Inter Miami being slight favourites for this one.
However, going forward they are so poor and you cannot bank on the hosts putting Minnesota away.
The Herons have scored just 15 from as many games, from chances equating to 16.4 xGF, creating chances at an average of 1.09 xGF per game.
The visitors are averaging 1.26 xGF per game and will fancy their chances of producing a resilient defensively display to help them yield a positive result, and potentially close that two-point gap on the play-offs in the West.
Unders does look like an appealing angle with this certainly a must not lose encounter for the hosts, but instead I am going to get two outcomes onside using the Asian Handicap.
The following numbers are still worth taking into account though.
Inter have scored in five of ten.
Inter have conceded in seven of ten.
Inter have seen both teams score in four of ten.
Inter have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
Minnesota have scored in eight of ten.
Minnesota have conceded in nine of ten.
Minnesota have seen both teams score in six of ten.
Minnesota have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.