Lines to duck under in fair Verona
AC Milan are three games away from a historic Scudetto, two points ahead of Inter Milan in one of the more thrilling title races in Europe.
Stefano Pioli’s men have been building slowly for a couple of years now, but they were not expected to put together a title charge with such a youthful squad.
Hellas Verona host them on Sunday looking to upset the apple cart.
Maurizio Setti’s men are ninth in Serie A and have been one of the most interesting teams to follow in recent years, transitioning between different styles of play and at times flirting with the European football qualification conversation.
Milan went off like a bullet in terms of their goalscoring this season, and their numbers have regressed to the mean substantially since, putting a lot of pressure on their assured rearguard.
They travel to the chief overperformers in front of goal in Hellas and Mike Maignan may have a lot to do to keep them out, as he bids for surprise Scudetto following on from Lille’s stunning Ligue 1 title in 2020/21.
Hellas have scored 61 from 48.9 expected goals (xG) for this season, a process that would keep them in Serie A but not have them towards the top half.
Milan are allowing just 1.00 xGA per game for the season, and it certainly feels like their defensive contingent is the key area of the pitch in pushing on towards the season’s climax.
The lines have come in a great deal in Serie A, but with Hellas involved there is value in backing some regression, combined with a trust in Milan’s backline, I am happy to take a shorter price on the Asian goal line to end the week.
Hellas have scored in nine of ten.
Hellas have conceded in nine of ten.
Hellas have seen both teams score in eight of ten.
Hellas have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Milan have scored in six of ten.
Milan have conceded in two of ten.
Milan have seen both teams score in one of ten.
Milan have seen over 2.5 goals in two of ten.