Value on visitors in cross-conference affair
FC Dallas take on New York City FC in a cross-conference affair in the early hours of Thursday morning.
Both sides are having impressive campaigns and will be very confident of qualifying for the play-offs at this stage.
Dallas are four in the Western Conference, with a two-point cushion inside the top seven, whereas the Pigeons are seven points clear inside the play-offs in the East, certainly the team on a surer footing heading into this encounter.
Dallas have been pretty erratic in the last couple of months, and therefore the visit of one of the most potent attacking forces in MLS could be a difficult one for them to navigate.
Process
The visitors are the stronger team in both boxes according to expected goals (xG), and in that there could be value with the outsiders at the Toyota Stadium.
The Pigeons are really clicking in the final third, scoring 37 goals from 18 games at an average of 2.14 xGF per game, a very healthy process heading into the play-offs.
Defensively, the visitors are also more impressive, conceding 21 from 20.5 xGA, limiting the opposition to 1.14 xGA per game on average.
Dallas have overperformed offensively, scoring 30 from 26.1 xGF from 19 games, at an average of 1.37 xGF per game.
Defensively they are steady, but may have to fight for their place in the top seven further down the line, if the attacking process does not improve.
Dallas have conceded 23 goals from 24.9 xGA, at an average of 1.31 xGA per game.
This could be a very exciting match given Dallas’ recent record in front of goal, and the Pigeons arriving with the chance to express themselves freely, with their more comfortable position in the Eastern Conference.
Goals?
Goals are on the cards, but surprising outright prices have made me edge towards a cautious play on the outsiders using the Asian Handicap.
Dallas have scored in nine of ten.
Dallas have conceded in ten of ten.
Dallas have seen both teams score in nine of ten.
Dallas have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of ten.
NYCFC have scored in eight of ten.
NYCFC have conceded in six of ten.
NYCFC have seen both teams score five of ten.
NYCFC have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
1-0 NYCFC.