Hammers faltering Toffees thriving
The vastly improved Toffees we have seen this season under Carlo Ancelotti welcome a stagnating West Ham United side to Goodison Park on Friday evening. Everton are currently sat second in the Premier League after 15 games, not form that the fans have been accustomed to seeing in this century. They host Manchester City tonight, an interesting test that will show us a lot about what this squad is made of and if we can truly consider them top four contenders. They are fairly strong favourites for this encounter but still remain odds against so to me are a good value punt.
Process
There has been a clear improvement defensively in recent weeks but for the campaign overall the Toffees are still trending as a mid table team, overperforming in both boxes in terms of expected goals. They rank sixth compared to ninth for goals scored and expected goals scored, slamming home 26 from chances equating to 22.9. Sitting fifth compared to 14th in their defensive numbers, conceding just 19 from 22.6 expected goals, some of the heat around Jordan Pickford’s England goalkeeping capabilities have been alleviated this term, but there has also been a markable upturn in solidarity since Lucas Digne’s injury has forced Ben Godfrey to deputise at left back. Combined with, at times, Mason Holgate on the other side, the rearguard action has been a lot firmer with them keeping three clean sheets in their last four Premier League outings.
As for the Hammers they are a sustainable mid to lower mid table side, a little better than they have been in flirting with relegation battles in recent years, a good enough process to keep fans on the side of David Moyes. Their form has cooled a little since some very impressive early campaign performances, regressing from a top eight side back to a team I expect to finish somewhere between ninth and 14th. They are without a win in three and come up against a superior Everton side on Friday.
Goals?
Not for me, given the Toffees’ recent defensive solidity, I would be more inclined to get them onside without conceding at all or more than one goal. The hosts also have an extra day to recover from their meeting with Manchester City than the Hammers do from their trip to the south coast to face Southampton.
- Everton have scored in eight of 10.
- Everton have conceded in seven of 10, but only in one of their last four league games.
- Everton have seen both teams score in four of 10, but just one in their last five.
- Everton have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10m but just one of their last seven.
- West Ham have scored in nine of 10.
- West Ham have conceded in eight of 10.
- West Ham have seen both teams score in seven of 10.
- West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of 10.
All the data and external factors point towards an Everton win here for me.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Everton struggled to get going and the Hammers won it late on through Tomas Soucek. 0-1.