Mellow yellow at Goodison
I don't think this will be one of these heated derbies we all fantasise about. Let me explain why...
A heated derby (at times)
These two teams hate each other; that hasn't changed. We all have various horror tackles seared into our memory from Merseyside derbies of yesteryear. Just google Steven Gerrard's tackle on Kevin Campbell if you don't believe me. But is it really the same as what it used to be?
I would argue yes, but only in patches. If we look at the recent stats we can see a few patterns.
- Everton pick up many more cards than Liverpool
- Almost all the cards come in the second half
- There are far less red cards than there used to be
- Most cards are usually picked up in a small segment of the match
I believe these stats reflect a feeling a lot of us have. Derbies in general are not what they used to be, wether it's the NLD or the Manchester Derby, but you can still catch glimpses in short periods. A misplaced tackle, a bad decision from the ref, and all hell can break loose.
Over the past six derbies the total cards have been 5,0,2,2,4,4
The second half
So why more yellows in the second half? Well, when you have a latent hatred it's all the more likely to spill over as a game progresses and the probability of an incident occurring that sets everyone off increases.
We can look at their last match earlier in the season, when Origi scored that bonkers goal in the 96th minute. There were a total of 5 cards. Four of these came within the last 14 minutes of the match.
Liverpool
As I mentioned Liverpool have picked up less cards over the past couple of years. Over the last few derbies they have a yellow card record of 3,0,0,1,1,1. They currently top the league, but only on goal difference and are facing Bayern in the second leg of the Champions League last-16 in March. So, I think they will not want to pick up any unnecessary cards this match or waste any emotional or physical energy on squabbles. I think we may see a similar match to the same fixture last season, where neither team picked up a card (or a goal!).
My tip
I am going to go with under 5.5 total match cards at odds of 8/13 with Bet365.
