Hornets to sting naive Rams
A struggling Derby County host pre-season promotion favourites Watford to kickstart the Championship’s return from the international break on Friday night. After competing for the playoffs towards the back end of last season Derby have lost three of their opening four, with the win being quite a fortuitous one over Norwich City last time out. A late strike from Wayne Rooney brought the three points, it was only their second goal of the league campaign compared to eight conceded. Watford present value as odds against in this one, despite only scoring two goals so far, they have underperformed compared to the chances they created and have the opportunity to break into the playoff places with a victory.
Lacklustre Derby
The opening exchanges of 2020/21 have not been dissimilar to that of last term for the Rams, who wallowed just above the relegation zone for some time before gathering momentum around January. In expected goals (xG) terms in defiance of the small sample size Derby are 23rd with the second worst underlying numbers in the division, three places lower than the 20th spot that they occupy. They have the second worst defence in the league for goals against (GA) and expected goals against (xGA), demonstrating where they can improve.
Philip Cocu managed to scrape a win from Carrow Road in switching from a back four to a three that saw the introduction of 35-year-old Curtis Davies to great effect. In the centre of the three the former England U21 international was commanding and put his body on the line, with his presence helping to improve the performance of Matt Clarke and George Evans either side of him. Expect the same system to be in place on Friday with the impetus on Watford to break them down, to which they certainly have the quality to do, after all the Canaries still mustered 1.94 – 0.68 xG and can consider themselves very unlucky not to have taken anything from the game.
Toothless Hornets
Vladimir Ivic’s men have been equally as blunt in front of goal, scoring just twice in four outings, though having only conceded once in their last match, a 1-0 loss to high flying Reading. They have however edged the xG battle in their last three games and were on course to remain around the automatic promotion spots before the last game. Young Brazilian striker Joao Pedro looks the most likely to break through the rearguard action, he has opened his account already and will be hungry to kick on in this his first full season in the first team.
Watford are the better side here and have the quality all over the pitch to hurt an experienced Rams team.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
The aforementioned Joao Pedro scored the winner late on with a delicious curling effort.