Flamengo value on their travels
Corinthians take on Flamengo on Sunday evening in hoping to kick on towards the top end of Brazilian Serie A.
The hosts will need to improve their performance levels to live with the visitors, who have been posting consistently strong numbers this season and are gradually starting to reap the rewards for doing so.
The hosts are winless in four without scoring and for that reason there is a lot of value on the visitors, who pulled off an impressive win at Santos last time out in the league.
Process
Corinthians have started the season strongly, but performances have not been matching up with results and they will need to improve to compete towards the top end.
Almighty are fourth in the table, but rank 10th on expected points, it is congested in the top half at the moment, but Flamengo are clicking at the moment and will be difficult to stop.
The visitors have scored just 18 from 27.2 expected goals (xG) for, the third best attacking process in the division, while conceding just 16 from 15 games, ranking them 2nd on defensive process, having allowed 17.6 xGA so far.
Corinthians have been very poor in front of goal so far, scoring 17 from 18.0 xG, the third-worst attacking process in the division.
The hosts are stronger defensively, not as solid as the visitors, but they have still only conceded 14 goals from 15 outings, from 19.9 xGA.
Goals?
A potential angle, due to the visitors’ unsustainable overperformance, but the hosts have been consistently firm in their own half despite not having a totally convincing process, making the Asian Handicap an attractive market to get involved with.
Corinthians have scored in five of ten.
Corinthians have conceded in three of ten.
Corinthians have seen both teams score in one of ten.
Corinthians have seen over 2.5 goals in two of ten.
Flamengo have scored in eight of ten.
Flamengo have conceded in seven of ten.
Flamengo have seen both teams score in five of ten.
Flamengo have seen over 2.5 goals.
The market is slowly catching up with Flamengo performing, data-wise, like one of the best teams in the division, but with the hosts struggling in front of goal considerably, there is certainly value in their outright price.
Ever the cautious punter, leaning on the Asian Handicap to ensure we avoid a loss with two different outcomes, makes me comfortable taking a Flamengo-based selection at a short price.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
1-0 Corinthians.