Value on the visitors in Montreal
CF Montreal host New York City FC in the early hours of Sunday morning in a top-of-the-table clash in the Eastern Conference.
The Impact are making a very good go of the 2022 season and are fourth at this stage with a nine point cushion inside the play-off places.
The visitors have been one of the most dangerous sides in the competition for some years now, and the Pigeons will be quietly optimistic about their chances of going deep in the play-offs.
The visitors are five point ahead at this stage, boasting a very commanding 14 point cushion inside the top seven.
There is potentially some value on the visitors, who are priced up as outsiders on their travels.
Montreal have scored 36 goals from 21 outings, from 30.1 expected goals (xG) for, with the reason they are in such a strong position being their defensive process.
The hosts have unsustainably underperformed at the back, and a regression to the mean will put them in a very positive place edging towards the business end of the season.
The Impact have conceded 36 goals, resulting in a goal difference of 0, from 23.8 xGA, limiting the opposition to just 1.13 xGA per game on average.
The visitors are stronger in both boxes, but only narrowly in the defensive third.
The Pigeons have conceded 21 from 23.3 xGA in 21 outings, at 1.11 xGA per game, while going forward they are amongst the most dangerous teams in the competition.
NYCFC have scored 41 from 43.1 xGF in 21 games, at a very healthy process of 2.05 xGF per game.
Sustaining that high level of chance creation should give them a great chance of making a deep run in the play-offs, when they arrive.
Potentially an option, but the price on the visitors gives us something to work with using the Asian Handicap.
Montreal have scored in seven of ten.
Montreal have conceded in eight of ten.
Montreal have seen both teams score in five of ten.
Montreal have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of ten.
NYCFC have scored in nine of ten.
NYCFC have conceded in six of ten.
NYCFC have seen both teams score in five of ten.
NYCFC have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Montreal are fairly short given the consistent performances of the visitors this season, I am happy to keep two outcomes onside and favour the Pigeons.