Brentford a bet at home to struggling Saints
Brentford host Southampton on Saturday afternoon with the visitors in much need of a result to haul their way off the bottom of the table.
The Bees are continuing their upward trajectory as a club this season, and Thomas Frank will be eyeing a top half finish.
Performances have been gradually improving for Southampton under Nathan Jones, but after a midweek trip to Newcastle United they will be at a preparation advantage upon arrival at the Brentford Community Stadium.
Brentford won the identical head-to-head last season and it is hard to argue that a repeat of that dominance is unlikely.
Process
The Saints have struggled in front of goal this season, and continuation of their low level attacking threat will likely result in them being dragged back to the second tier.
They have scored just 17 goals from 20 league outings, from chances equating to 22.3 expected goals (xG) for, not an underperformance that I can see regressing in a positive way considering the amount of time they have spent trailing in matches so far this season.
Brentford on the other hand are strongest in the attacking third, are even more dangerous on their own patch, and have almost scored double the number of goals that the Saints have managed in the league this term.
Bees have scored 32 from 33.8 xGF at 1.69 xGF per game, and will likely hang around the top half picture if they can sustain that process for the remainder of the campaign.
The hosts will be without Frank Onyeka, Pontus Jansson and Shandon Baptiste due to injury.
Alex McCarthy, Juan Larios, Kyle Walker-Peters, Stuart Armstrong and Tino Livramento will miss out for the visitors, while Moussa Djenepo and Theo Walcott are doubts.
Goals?
Certainly a potential angle, but having been burnt by a goalless draw between Brentford and Leeds United recently, I am content siding with the Bees at home, who are probably a little shorter than a bigger name would with their underlying numbers this season.
Brentford have scored in eight of ten.
Brentford have conceded in seven of ten.
Brentford have seen both teams score in six of ten.
Brentford have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
Southampton have scored in seven of ten.
Southampton have conceded in nine of ten.
Southampton have seen both teams score in nine of ten.
Southampton have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
3-0 Bees, Saints looking desperate.