First goal wins
Austria will host Bosnia & Herzegovina on Thursday in the Nations League and if the trend continues, we'll see significantly less goals in this round than you would in club football. This match in particular fills all the criteria for a goal-shy affair. Let me explain why...
Austria
If you look up "average" in the football dictionary you'll get Austria. They have a number of good players, some ok players and a few question marks. Arnautovic and Alaba are the clearly the biggest names in the squad but these two cannot guarantee success by themselves. It will be Austria's third game of the Nations league with the first two ending in a 1-0 win against Northern Ireland and a 0-1 loss away in Bosnia. In these matches Austria conceded only a few chances and created only a handful. Their defence which consists of Prödl, Dragovic and Hinteregger is solid. At home, Austria will be expected to have more possession than they did away in Bosnia (55%), but they still won't really be considered the favourites. They will first want to minimise any risk then they'll think about scoring.
It will be Austria's third game of the Nations league with the first two ending in a 1-0 win against Northern Ireland and a 0-1 loss away in Bosnia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
On paper Bosnia and Herzegovina are slightly stronger than Austria but away from home I rate their chances at 50/50. Bosnia have a strong spine in Besic, Pjanic and Dzeko. Austria will need to keep things tight in the middle if they are to stop these guys from dictating the game. Even though Bosnia and Herzegovina have some big names in their squad they haven't really impressed so far this season. They have won all their games in the Nations League but they've all been narrow wins. They beat Northern Ireland by a goal (1-2) away and beat them 2-0 at home. So, two of three games have resulted in under 2.5 goals.
Betting tips
This is not a match that Bosnia and Herzegovina will be overly stressed about, but I also don't believe that Austria really have what it takes to break down their opposition. I think it will be a close match and that the first goal will decide who wins. Historically these matches have been close, with only a few goals separating the teams, 1-0 and 1-1 in the previous two meetings. I believe that the trend will continue and so I will bet on under 2.5 goals at odds of 8/11.
