Atalanta firing their way to Europe
Free-scoring Atalanta know that a win against Bologna tonight will leave them in a strong position to fight the Milan clubs for Champions League football going into the last 8 games of the season. That’s an opportunity they will take with open arms.
Goals come easy for Atalanta
The Nerazzurri have managed 60 league goals thus far in Serie A, placing them second only to Juventus. Although they have conceded an extra 21 in comparison with the old lady, star Columbian David Zapata has offset that with his incredible run in front of goal. A brace last time taking his tally to 19 for the season.
Their home form isn’t very inspiring, but they’ve only lost two of the last 10 in all competitions scoring 21 goals in the process. During this stretch they’ve scored at least twice in 60% of the games and three times in 40% of them including a 3-0 cup win over Juventus, with both teams scoring in 70% of the games during this run.
The focus I’m taking is on the over/under. Atalanta sit top of the pile when it comes to O/U 3.5 goals at 15/14 in the 29 games played so far including two of their last five beating the mark.
Improving La Dotta
Bologna have dragged themselves back into the race to stay in the Italian top flight by winning their last three games in a row including an away with at Torino where they managed to find the net three times. In contrast with today’s opponents, goals have been hard to find for La Dotta. Just 27 in 29 games and they’ve netted seven in that three-win streak.
They will go the Stadio Atleti Azzurri d’italia rejuvenated however and their recent propensity for goals only increased my liking for a high scoring game in this instance. Conceding 14 in 10 games might not look bad on paper but in this run they have conceded two goals in three separate games and had a 4-0 drubbing at home to Frosinone. Both teams have found the net in 60% of their games also.
Delving into the Over/Under 3.5 for them reads 7/22 in the 29 games so far with only one of their last five going over. Their 15 away games of the season have accounted for 5 of the 7 though, which bodes well when travelling to a high scoring side.
Betting Tip
As I’ve focused on throughout the preview, it is the goals column I am looking at for this one. The bet I felt best value in the end was O3.5 goals at 13/8 on B365.
If you wanted something for an accumulator at shorter odds but still a better price than a home win, then I’d plump for Atalanta & O2.5 at 11/10but given all the figures I’ve referenced throughout the piece, I think tonight looks like a good night for the Nerazzurri to add significantly to the goals for column and inch a step closer to European football next season.
