Udinese to test Milan at the summit
AC Milan are currently leading the three horse race at the top of Serie A with 12 matches remaining for Stefano Pioli’s men to hold on.
Milan are two points ahead of Inter Milan in second, who have played one game less, and Napoli in third with Juventus sat fourth seven points behind the league leaders.
Udinese will provide stiff opposition at the San Siro and could easily frustrate the hosts who have been incredibly dynamic in the attacking third this season.
Rafael Leao and Olivier Giroud’s relationship at the top of the pitch will be crucial in the final stretch as Serie A certainly boasts one of the most exciting title races in Europe.
Process
Milan are the better side in both boxes but regression could hamper their chances of kicking on to the Scudetto in the final stretch.
The Red and Blacks have scored 52 goals from 41.6 expected goals (xG) this term, overperforming unsustainably in terms of their finishing.
They are averaging 1.60 xGF per game this season, which is below par for what we are accustomed to seeing for league leaders.
Pioli’s men have been impressive though defensively and look set for an achievement in itself to finish in the top four in back-to-back seasons.
Considering their league position, Udinese have been excellent defensively and have been a little unfortunate to concede 41 goals from 32.3 xGA across the course of the season.
The pressure is on, Inter will be favourites to retain the league title but Milan and Napoli will fancy their chances of upsetting the odds.
Top scorer Zlatan Ibrahimovic is injured at present, but Giroud is performing well in his absence, and has experience of winning trophies year on year.
Goals?
Udinese will be hoping to spoil the party at San Siro and a strong defensive display looks likely given the way they are trending at the back, compared to Milan overperforming in the final third.
Milan have scored in nine of ten.
Milan have conceded in six of ten.
Milan have seen both teams score in six of ten.
Milan have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Udine have scored in six of ten.
Udine have conceded in five of ten.
Udine have seen both teams score in three of ten.
Udine have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
Milan are strong favourites but this will be a lot tougher than the league table suggests.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
1-1 draw, regression hits for Milan.